NBER study: thousands of CEOs say AI had no impact on employment or productivity

A National Bureau of Economic Research study of 6,000 CEOs found AI has had no measurable impact on employment or productivity, reviving Robert Solow's 1987 productivity paradox. Despite 374 S&P 500 companies mentioning AI positively in earnings calls, those gains aren't showing up in macro data. The findings echo the early computing era when productivity actually slowed for years after new technology arrived. Economists suggest AI may follow a similar pattern, with productivity gains lagging adoption by a decade or more.

View full digest for February 18, 2026