Without AI spending, US corporate investment in equipment would be negative

Corporate capex rose 2.6% in Q4 2025, but AI-linked spending drove all growth, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Computer and communications equipment spending surged 61%, while all other segments declined. Investment in non-AI equipment plunged 17%, a decline the analyst called "worryingly broad-based." The concentration masks weakness elsewhere. AI-related sectors contributed 0.3 percentage points of the 2.5% average GDP growth in 2025's first three quarters, while non-AI investment shrank. Hyperscaler capex is projected at $646B in 2026, nearly 2% of US GDP alone, raising questions about whether the economy is becoming dangerously dependent on a single sector.

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